Electric cars are trending everywhere, and everyone is talking about them. The EV sector is going to bring the whole automobile industry to its knees by as early as 2028. The latest forecasts suggest that the takeover of ICE vehicles by EVs is imminent and will be swift.
The report suggests the petrol cars are holding the biggest market share will rapidly decrease in the second half of this decade. Find out how as we dig in for more details.
EVs To Takeover By 2028
The latest forecast from Cox Automotive reveals that the next four automobile years are going to be unpredictable. The EV industry will have to drastically adjust to changing consumer demands and economic challenges.
The rise of electric vehicles has already been remarkable, with nearly 979,000 EVs entering the market since 2020. However, despite their growing demand and adoption, significant barriers like not reaching zero-emission vehicle or ZEV targets, are still there.
Price reductions, primarily led by Tesla, and increasing incentives have helped keep sales moving. However, concerns around charging infrastructure and technology have always remained barriers for many buyers.
The study also talks about the shift in EV buyer demographics. While early adoption has been dominated by luxury buyers and high-income households, EV interest is expanding to younger, more diverse, and less affluent consumers.
Global Survey Finds 92% of EV Owners Have No Plans to Return to Gas Cars
More shoppers are looking at used EVs, with consideration rising from 62% in 2021 to 77% today. While Tesla remains the most recognized EV brand, awareness of electric offerings from Toyota, Hyundai, and Kia has grown in recent years.
You would be surprised to know that many automakers still struggle with visibility as only one-third of shoppers, for example, are aware of Nissan’s EV lineup despite the brand’s early entry into the market.
COX Four-Year Forecast Findings
Electric vehicle sales in the U.S. crossed the one-million mark for the first time last year, despite this milestone, the pace of growth has slowed, and consumer interest in EVs has declined after peaking in 2022.
Analysis suggests this shift is part of the natural evolution of the market, as EVs transition from early adopters to now a far broader consumer base.
Cox Automotive’s new EV forecast suggests the petrol car market is set to decline significantly, with its share predicted to fall to 30% by 2028, according to industry intelligence provider Cox Automotive. This decline translates to 1.4 million fewer petrol cars being sold over the next four years.
Diesel vehicles are expected to fare even worse, with Cox forecasting a steep drop to just 6% market share by 2028—a 76% decline since 2020. This sharp decrease equates to two million fewer diesel cars being sold.
Car registrations are predicted to see a slight increase in 2025, with a forecasted 1.5% growth over 2024. However, overall volumes remain well below pre-pandemic levels, with 1.7 million fewer vehicles registered between 2020 and 2024.
The slow recovery of private buyers has added to this challenge, as their registrations have dropped by 19.2% over the same period.
At the same time, the UK car market is becoming more competitive, with new brands entering the scene. Companies like BYD, Jaecoo, Omoda, and Skywell joined the UK market in 2024, bringing the total number of manufacturers to over 60.
Essentially speaking electric market has experienced rapid growth. Cox Automotive describes the rise of EVs as “remarkable,” with registrations increasing by 560% since 2020. Nearly one million EVs have entered the UK market in just four years, capturing close to a 20% market share only in 2024.
What To Expect In The Coming Future
Another study from Cox Automotive from last year indicates that while some consumers remain hesitant, the next wave of EV buyers is on the horizon. The 2024 Path to EV Adoption Study suggests that within the next three to five years, over half of today’s EV skeptics will actively consider purchasing an electric vehicle.
By 2033, as charging networks improve and battery technology advances, 90% of all vehicle shoppers—both new and used—are expected to have EVs on their shortlist.
However, current challenges such as charging accessibility and range anxiety still continue to haunt and deter many potential buyers. Moreover, cost remains a key factor for those already considering an EV.
According to the latest report from Cox Automotive, the upcoming year is expected to be the strongest for car sales since before the pandemic, fueled by growing consumer interest, expanding EV options, and improving infrastructure.
“With 2024 finishing on a high note, Cox Automotive is optimistic about 2025, with plenty of reasons to believe it will be the best year since 2019,” said Jonathan Smoke, the company’s chief economist.
Bottomline
The new EV shift to electric vehicles is no longer a question of “what if” but “when”. With petrol and diesel market shares plummeting and EV adoption steadily rising, the automotive landscape is undergoing a transformation unlike any before.
While challenges like infrastructure gaps and price concerns persist, better battery technology, expanding charging networks, and growing consumer awareness might prove mighty for EVs.
By the end of this decade, EVs will no longer be a niche option but the mainstream choice for most buyers. The road ahead may look sketchy right now but the EV market share is definitely growing.
